Monday, April 30, 2007

Difference of Opinion


Tim Flannery just stated that a 1 degree rise in temperature is large considering that the worlds temp was 13.5 degrees before the Industrial Age. So has Australia’s pre-eminent scientist and Australian of the Year never heard of The Kelvin Scale or is he just dumbing it down for the rest of us?

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42 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Great Post! Keep it up.

5:52 AM  
Blogger A J said...

I wanted to say something positive for a change, on Difference of Opinion last night I was very very impressed with Warwick McKibbin, it was the most rational I have ever heard anyone speak on climate change.

You can download the show from the ABC website.

3:01 PM  
Blogger timboy said...

McKibbin didn't offer a rational view of the best approach to tackling climate change, he offered a conservative view.

There was nothing rational about his stance.

Go and read the Stern report and what it has to say about early vs. late action on addressing climate change.

10:46 PM  
Blogger larson_b said...

i can't stand that show.

wilfred was funny, though.

11:09 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

But the point is, acting fast is impossible and reckless.

Acting fast on climate change would result in a huge public backlash. People are not prepared to overnight give up what is needed to live in a less polluted world. It could only be achieved though slow, measured and precise actions. I actually would not call his view conservative, as I think that he is being compared to extreamly radical people. And McKibbin is right, if we target climate change, then we stop targeting poverty and aids. But no one in that studio would listen.

-Alex

12:35 AM  
Blogger larson_b said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

6:15 PM  
Blogger larson_b said...

that's so fucking immoral: creating a dichotomy between poverty and ecology.

what could he possibly base that on?

sorry - misspelt something

6:16 PM  
Blogger timboy said...

It's the classic conservative argument.

We are currently doing nothing in relation to poverty and aids, so therefore we should do nothing in relation to climate change so we can focus on doing something on poverty and aids.

End result- nothing is achieved on any front.

Sorry, haven't been able to blog much because I'm studying!

7:29 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

But there is a dichotomy between poverty and Climate Change. If climate change occurs, poverty will increase. If we target climate change, the global economy will be effected, poverty will increase.

So the way I see it Climate Change will kill people, whether its real or not.

And I think we do target poverty and aid to a certain extent. I mean the World Bank does. Not to say that we shouldn't do more. But hey, is $1 spent fighting Aids better or worse value than $1 spent fighting Climate Change?

And I really don't think McKibben was conservative. What is conservative? Howard IS conservative on Climate Change. He stupidly thinks we should not target it because of his "skeptic" friends. Not that being a skeptic is a bad thing. But a simple risk assement shows that targeting climate change is the best bet. However its still very risky playing with the economy in such a way, so we should be very carefull. Any gung-ho cowboy approach is destined to fail.

Case Study: Rudd elected, He Engineers very large price on carbon, people lose jobs, people don't get used to 2min showers, people miss central heating, Libs win next election, bact to square 1.

And I have more to say! So please keep the thread going! :)

-Alex

2:46 AM  
Blogger timboy said...

Look the fact that you had two business representatives there saying that the Stern report wasn't a radical change pretty much sums things up as far as I'm concerned.

There is nothing radical about cutting emmissions by 20% by 2020. There is no way that this is too much too fast, and I don't think McKibbin even said that much.

Like the AGL guy said, the worst outcome from taking steps to prevent global warming would be prolonging the availability of fossil fuels.

I think most of the greenhouse initiatives you will se over the next twenty years will be of the efficiency variety anyway. It will take much longer for the deeper more structural changes to flow through. The way the economy, business and policy debate is going you would think there would be no chance of 'cutting too deep, too quickly'

Basically I think McKibbin came across as a quack and a professional worry wart.

5:35 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

But Timbo they are buisness people with a key stake in carbon trading. They have both decided that carbon trading will happen and that they will move first for the buisness advantage. Carbon trading is good for both Insurance Companies and AGL in my mind.

The guy from AGL looked like he had spent the last week in the solarium in preperation for the show...doesn't sound like an environmentalist to me :)-

What I think McKibben was trying to put accross was that countries need their own individual targets that need to have some degree of flexibility. If the target is too high it would wreck their economy, if the targets too low its pointless. Yet the only way to find the right balance is with a measured aproach, rather than rushing in gung-ho Schwarzenegger style.

And Tim efficiencies are not a great way of solving the problem. Because a proportion of any money saved will be money spent. Which reinforces the cultural heart of the problem.

To solve the problem, People need to drive less, do less, fly less, eat less, eat differently, buy less, buy differently, hand wash dishes, 2min showers, less hot drinks, less ice cold drinks, less child births. Coupled with a cleaner energy supply. And it needs to happen EVERYWHERE. And that is quite a challange.

I actually am prepared to do that. And I don't yet fully believe in Climate Change. However the reality is the average person won't be.

Its a very very very very complex problem, its like tackling a rubix cube in the dark. I mean, we need to change the fundermental way that everyone in the world lives their lives.

3:56 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I also want to add that I think Flannery is at times an activist mascarading as a scientist. And he has no expertise on economic policy. I mean this guy wants to build a city inland called "Geothermia" to harness the earths energy. I mean that’s the sort of idea that 15yr olds come up with. Someone needs to sit him down with a map of the globe and ask him to point to successful cities that don't have ports! Actually I think he wanted "Geothermia" to be 1000+km from a port!

I just don't think he should be the Science worlds spokesman on the issue. As his now giving advice thats way out of his depth of knowledge.


-ALEX

BTW the last post was from me as well.

4:04 PM  
Blogger larson_b said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

12:58 AM  
Blogger larson_b said...

"Case Study: Rudd elected, He Engineers very large price on carbon, people lose jobs, people don't get used to 2min showers, people miss central heating, Libs win next election, bact to square 1."

i know have worked out how you came to the conclusion that mckibbon could argue rationally.

1:04 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm not sure if Mr Larson is agreeing with me or being sacastic :)

I just don't think anyone can do a Keating on this issue, by saying stuff popularity and doing the right thing. As the problem requires at least 50yrs of commitment, I don't think one government can make a dent on this issue in a single term.

And I just stepped in dog poo, is that God's way of punishing me for saying stuff that Tim percieves as Right Wing?

-A

3:08 AM  
Blogger larson_b said...

hehehe that was sarcasm... although i entirely agree with

" As the problem requires at least 50yrs of commitment, I don't think one government can make a dent on this issue in a single term."

historically we solved problems that were spatially larger than 'us' by becoming regions, then nations.

but how do we resolve things that are temporally larger than our political systems?

11:28 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Case Study: Rudd elected, He Engineers very large price on carbon, people lose jobs, people don't get used to 2min showers, people miss central heating, Libs win next election, bact to square 1."

I know it sounds silly. But I honestly I think its the reality. The people are all for tacking climate change. I mean, you go to a coffee shop and they will be talking about it. But at the same time that coffee shop has outdoor heaters and coffee itself is energy intensive. People are just not prepared to stop wasting energy.

"historically we solved problems that were spatially larger than 'us' by becoming regions, then nations. but how do we resolve things that are temporally larger than our political systems?"

OK thats exactly the point. We need everyone to be involved. But a target of say 20% reduction by 2020 may be reasonable for Australia, but is it reasonable for every country? Its quite complex.

-Alex

1:06 AM  
Blogger timboy said...

All very good discussion.

I think Rudd has it right by arguing that global warming is the defining moral issue of our times- it cuts to the heart of how we choose to live, and how that relates to the lives of others.

There will be a lot of reliance placed on individuals and nations to 'do the right thing' for the environment, and plenty of opportunities for the usual crowd to game and profit by inaction or deliberate non-compliance.

But, at the end of the day we should still do the right thing regardless of those who would seek to make short term profits from inaction. There is a definite role for governments in policing corporate and governmental poor behaviour here. Ie nations that seek to take advantage from non-compliance should face sanctions.

So it's not just an issue of markets and maintaining competitive advantage- There is also the question of morality, and acting in good faith towards each and every person on the planet.

McKibbin didn't seem at all concerned about the moral and ethical problems associated with climate change. His position was, 'we'll do as much as we can without losing any competitive advantage'.

Short sighted, morally questionable= bad faith and a bad view.

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