Sunday, October 14, 2007


John Howard has finally called the election. I wasn't surprised that he went for the long 6 week campaign.

He will be hoping that Rudd and Labor make as many mistakes, and get as worn out as possible on the campaign trail.

But I think the polls tell the tale for the Coalition government. They have done everything possible to appease older voters, and in the process completely lost the younger generation.

Today in The Age the Taverner Poll revealed that 72% of people surveyed aged 18 to 29 will vote against John Howard.

Some of the reasons I would speculate are behind the decrease in popularity (from 60% against in 2004) amongst young people:

Housing affordability
Slowness in adopting a coherent approach to global warming
Education spending
Xenophobic tendencies
Lack of interest in indigenous issues
Lack of young people involved in the Liberal Party

Clearly the government saw this trend in youth opinion a long way off with it's ramshackled attempt to lock first time voters out of the rolls through abridging the cut off times for enrollment once the election was called.

But with that sort of dissatisfaction, preventing tens of thousands of first time voters from voting won't make much of a difference- they will still get whacked by the youth vote anyway.

The Age article also states:

'In 2004, 59 per cent of over 55s voted for the Coalition compared with 41 per cent for Labor. The gap has been narrowed dramatically to 51 per cent support for the Coalition, compared with 49 per cent for Labor.'

So the Coalition has held the oldies, just, but at the expense of just about every other category.


Blogger C-MAC said...

Nice post. But since I am a pedant: "Lack of young people involved in the Liberal Party"? Isn't that a symptom of unpopularity rather than a cause?

11:23 AM  
Blogger timboy said...

If they made a proper attempt at encouraging young candidates and members they wouldn't have let their agenda slide to the point where their disapproval is so alarmingly high amongst young voters.

In the last eleven yeyars they have not made the slightet effort to encourage young people to join the party.

And they have not even pretended to listen to the concerns of young Australians.

4:24 PM  
Blogger larson_b said...

it's on!
this ( will suck more than a few in.

11:08 PM  

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